Our Unique Formula to Forecasting Long-Range Weather
As America’s oldest weather forecaster, The Old Farmer’s Almanac specializes in predicting extended forecasts—or what we call long-range weather. Discover our unique, age-old formula that’s based on three scientific disciplines. Plus, let’s talk about the question, “what is normal weather?”
The Old Farmer’s Almanac has predicted the weather since our founding in 1792—when George Washington was president!
New! Read about our 2022—2023 Winter Forecast!
Some think our long-range forecasts are derived from folklore. According to weather lore, a long, hard winter can be predicted by lots of acorns, tough apple skins, and thick corn husks, while a mild one can be predicted by lower bees nests and thin onion skins. Have you ever looked inside a persimmon seed? It may give you clues, too!
While we can neither confirm nor deny the reliability of this folklore, we do know that, centuries ago, folks observed such phenomena and noticed corresponding, repeating weather patterns … so at The Old Farmer’s Almanac, we allow that there just might be some truth to it! However, folklore does not figure into the creation of weather forecasts in our annual almanac.
A Secret Weather Formula
Our weather forecast methodology stems from a secret formula that was devised by our founder, Robert B. Thomas, in 1792, when George Washington was president. And believe it or not, it has nothing to do acorns, apples, wooly bear caterpillars, or persimmons!
Thomas believed that weather on Earth was influenced by sunspots, which are magnetic storms on the surface of the Sun. Notes about his formula are locked in a black box in our offices in Dublin, New Hampshire.
Enjoy this humorous interview with Almanac Editor-in-Chief Jud Hale who shares the legend of the black box.
We Use 3 Disciplines in Long-Range Predictions
Over the years, we have refined and enhanced that formula with state-of-the-art technology and modern scientific calculations. We employ three scientific disciplines to make our long-range predictions:
- solar science, the study of sunspots and other solar activity;
- climatology, the study of prevailing weather patterns; and
- meteorology, the study of the atmosphere.
We predict weather trends and events by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity.
Although neither we nor any other forecasters have as yet gained sufficient insight into the mysteries of the universe to predict the weather with total accuracy, our results are often very close to our traditional claim of 80 percent.
What Is “Normal” Weather?
When you read the weather predictions in this Almanac (or listen to any TV or radio forecast), you may notice that we compare temperature and precipitation to what’s ” normal.” Most of us may think of the weather as what happened last year or the year prior. Our forecasts consider “normal” to be the 30-year average. We plan long-term and we think long-term.
New Climate Normals for 2023 Almanac
Every ten years the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI - formerly the National Climatic Data Center) calculates a new set of U.S. 30-year normals. Starting with the 2023 edition of The Old Farmer’s Almanac, the long-range predictions will be based on the new set of U.S. 30-year normals. This is a shift from 1981-2010 to 1991-2020.
What do the new normals say?
- Warming from 1981-2010 to 1991-2020 is widespread, but not found everywhere across the continental U.S., either in geographic space or time of year, with recent cooling in the north central U.S.
- Precipitation changes from 1981-2010 to 1991-2020 also vary considerably on a month-to-month basis, but are generally wetter in the central and eastern U.S.
Read more about how our climate normals are calculated.
Where You Can Buy The Old Farmer’s Almanac
The 2023 Old Farmer’s Almanac—America’s #1 Almanac—is now available to order in classic paperback, hardcover, and digital editions!
Always reliable and entertaining, this handy yellow book is a “true” Almanac—a calendar of the heavens, a time capsule of the year, and an essential reference that reads like a magazine. Always timely, topical, and distinctively “useful, with a pleasant degree of humor,” the Almanac is useful DAILY in all walks of life.
Now in its 231st year, The Old Farmer’s Almanac is STILL the best-selling annual in the United States and Canada, thanks to readers from coast to coast! The longest-running periodical in America (since George Washington was president!), it’s a timeless guide to daily living. With our long-standing commitment to “new, useful, and entertaining matter,” you can count on your new edition to deliver a comprehensive and trustworthy guide to 2023.
Order the 2023 Almanac exclusively in our Almanac.com store or on Amazon!
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I don't believe your claim of 80% accuracy. You are "grading your own paper." Nevertheless, I have been reading the Almanac for many years and continue to do so. It definitely is interesting with a pleasant degree of humor. :{)>
Thank you for writing this article. I am a scientist who studies every aspect of how Geology, Weather, and Space are interconnected. I am certainly interested in working for an organization like yours and continue to gather records to predict a more accurate picture of the annual climate. Thanks for sharing!
I grew up on a farm 30 miles North of Detroit Mich
I have always been very Interested in the Weather
I enjoy reading every thing you Publish
Thank You
I’ve recently developed a self acuired addiction to accruing knowkedge. As nerdy as that sounds, I find myself researching a plethora of different subjects in my free time just to try to gain a glimpse of all the secrets this world holds.
In today’s world, bias and subjectivity taints almost everything you read and hear. Society has become me vs you and simple facts are distorted based on the author or presenters perception. I never take anything at face value and if I’m at all able to I try to figure out the science and raw principles behind why/how something works. I admire the Almanac in its use of data to determine an outcome.
My only question is why would you not make this “formula” available to more people? Of course I see how when readily available, people could abuse and tarnish the reputation of the Almanac by making incorrect predictions, but their is also some disadvantage to the almanac by not having a more broadened analytical base. Two heads are better that one kind of thing. Just a thought, I’ve notived that sometimes my private studies have led me to hit roadblocks that state I need to pay or that I don’t have access to due to secrecy. I hate that about this world. Knowledge is power, but it should be available to all those who seek it. Thanks for your time, and I respect your team’s accuracy and dedication!
Thanks for your message. The “formula” is not so much mathematical or otherwise linearly readable; it’s a matter of interpretation. We acknowledge that we use three scientific disciplines in making our weather forecasts: solar science, in particular the sunspots; climatology, the study of prevailing conditions over time; and meteorology, the study of the atmosphere. Our meteorologist “interprets” recent and current solar activity, compares it to similar periods, and considers the various global weather phenomena (e.g., oscillations, jet stream, etc.)—as well as current trends in greenhouse gases—and makes his predictions. He does not make proclamations. We do not expect to be 100% accurate; our historic average is 80% accurate. Others could take the same information (it is public) and come up with different conclusions. We have one meteorologist at a time and we put our trust in him. Two heads are better than one for some matters, but sometimes two leads to three (to break a tie) and before you know it, you’ve got a committee. We’ll stick with our one.
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