White Christmas Weather Forecast 2022

White Christmas Forecast (United States)

According to our famous long-range predictions, snow is in the forecast for Christmas week in a large part of the U.S. this year.

In most regions, periods of snow showers or flurries are expected to occur in the days leading up to Christmas, which means that many folks will be able to enjoy a White Christmas! Looming rain threatens to make it a wash down the West Coast and across the South, however.

Below are the weather highlights by region. Just click on your region to see more details!

• In the Northeast, Lower Lakes, Upper Midwest, Heartland, High Plains, Intermountain, and Alaska, expect snow showers in the days leading up to Christmas, with temperatures trending colder. 
• Rain showers will turn to snow flurries around Christmas in the Atlantic Corridor, Appalachians, and Ohio Valley.
• Expect rain showers around the holiday in Florida and the Southeast, accompanied by cool, seasonable weather.
• The Deep South and Texas-Oklahoma will be blessed with sunny skies around Christmas, accompanied by chilly temperatures in the Deep South but milder weather in Texas-Oklahoma.
• The Desert Southwest looks like it wants to have a bit of everything, with snow showers in store for the eastern half of the region and rain in the west.
• In the Pacific Northwest, rainy periods will occasionally turn to wet snow, accompanied by cold temperatures. In the Pacific Southwest, that snow will be rain instead.
• The eastern and western islands of Hawaii should expect rain showers for Christmas, with isolated showers occurring in the central part of the archipelago.

Christmas Weather in Canada

• In Canada, snow will be on the ground (or at least in the air) for Christmas Day in Southern Ontario, Southern Quebec, the Prairies, and Southern British Columbia, as well as way up north in the Yukon and Northwest Territories.
• In Atlantic Canada, rain will plague the days leading up to Christmas, but snow is likely to make an appearance on the holiday itself.

Christmas! ‘Tis the season for kindling the fire of hospitality in the hall, the genial flame of charity in the heart. –Washington Irving, American writer (1783-1859)

What Places Usually Have a White Christmas?

If you love the idea of a White Christmas, find out where snow is most likely! Based on NOAA historical weather data (based on 30-year data sets), here are the odds. Any surprises?

Northeast and Great Lakes

• Northern Maine, Minnesota, North Dakota, Michigan, and Wisconsin can practically guarantee a blanket of snow on Christmas Day, since snow begins falling earlier in the month and these northern areas have freezing temperature to avoid snow melt.  In Minneapolis, it’s an 80% chance. Over northern Michigan and especially the Upper Peninsula, as well as northern Minnesota, 3 out of every 4 years on average feature a white Christmas. Even greater odds exist over northern North Dakota.
• In the White Mountains of northern New Hampshire, it’s a 97% odds; northern Vermont has a 75 to 95% chance.
• In central and southern New England, there’s a 50-50% shot shot in a random year; Boston’s odds are only 20%.
• Around upstate New York and western New England, it’s just over a 50-50 shot. Cleveland’s odds are 1 in 3 and Chicago only 2 in 5 for Christmas Day.

Reference: NOAA

Western U.S. 

• Moving west towards Montana and Idaho, the odds of a White Christmas are quite good but also very consistent; it may be cold but some areas are also dry with the precipitation needed for snow. Missoula, Montana has a very high 98% chance. Idaho City, near Boise, is also high with a 94% chance. Salt Lake City is only 50-50 odds.

• Colorado also varies greatly depending on the proximity of the mountains.. East of Denver is only 40% and Boulder is 47% yet southwest of Boulder, it’s 77%!  The same goes for southern Rockies; elevation and can make a difference; even Flagstaff, Arizona, has a 44% chance of snow.

Low Chances in Rest of the Country

Don’t expect high odds in the Plains, Mid-Atlantic, the South, Texas-Oklahoma, Missouri, or western and central Tennessee.  We’re talking very low chances (perhaps 20%). Washington D.C. has only 6% odds.

So if you want a White Christmas or, conversely, want to escape snow on Christmas Day, consider the historical odds! Our only surprise is how low the odds are for most of the country.

See the 2022-2023 Winter Weather Forecast for this year’s predictions!

Start the New Year Right!

Pick up a copy of the 2023 Almanac for 12 months of long-range forecasts! It’s the perfect stocking stuff and gift to start the new year off right!

So, are you dreaming of a white Christmas? Let us know in the comments!